Late on Saturday night, at Israel’s behest, the US entered the Israeli-Iranian war with strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, “completely obliterating” them, in Trump’s words.
On Monday, Iran struck back, firing missiles at the largest US airbase in the Middle East, Al Udeid in Qatar. It appeared as though the Middle East was poised for a broader, longer war. But within hours, Trump announced on Truth Social, his social media platform, “It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE.” Trump called it “the 12 Day War … that could have gone on for years and destroyed the Middle East”.
Four hours after the ceasefire was supposed to take effect, Israel launched a strike against Iran in retaliation for what it said were two ballistic missiles entering its airspace, launched from Iran. Both were intercepted. Israel’s retaliation destroyed a radar station near Tehran. Trump was furious. “I’m really unhappy that Israel went out this morning,” he told reporters. “We’ve got two countries that have been fighting so hard and for so long, that they don’t know what the f*** they’re doing.”
Iran said it did not fire those missiles. By 11:30 GMT the ceasefire was back in effect. Trump spoke to Netanyahu.
“ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly ‘Plane Wave’ to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. What did Israel achieve?
Israel has long claimed that Iran is its number one existential threat, but it has never before struck Tehran’s nuclear facilities.
On June 13, it crossed that red line, bombing the surface installations of the Natanz fuel enrichment plant and the Isfahan nuclear technological complex. Iran retaliated by launching drones and missiles at Israel. Israel had struck nuclear installations in Syria and Iraq before, but it has now proved it can carry out a complex mission much further afield.
It also withstood international accusations that its mission wasn’t legal. Israel claims it was anticipatory self-defence, but not everyone agrees that Iran is developing a nuclear bomb, or that it planned to use it against Israel imminently. “I speak with world leaders and they are very impressed by our determination and the achievements of our forces,” Netanyahu said on June 18.
Finally, Israel proved it can convince the US to enter a limited Middle Eastern offensive it has started. In previous wars in 1967 and 1973, the US had provided material support to Israel when it was attacked, but had not assisted it with direct operational involvement.Netanyahu thanked Trump for “standing alongside us”.
Operation Rising Lion against Iran took place in the wake of conflicts that Israel has waged against Iran’s regional allies – the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hamas and Hezbollah have been weakened over the past two years. What Israel and Iran have agreed to is a ceasefire. They haven’t made peace.On Iran’s nuclear programme, experts say that there are – broadly speaking – two possible future paths.
Renewed UN inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities and a new treaty with Iran, perhaps resembling former US President Barack Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action of 2015, might help Tehran ease global pressure on its programme, though it was Trump who pulled out of the JCPOA, not Iran.
This is where European powers can play a role. Three of them, the United Kingdom, France and Germany, met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on June 20, along with the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, in an effort to avert US strikes. That bid failed, but although the EU cannot alone leverage Iran into a compromise, it can act as a counterpoint to US-Israeli hard power.
Source: Here
