Following the emergence of China and India as economic powers, India-China or US-China competition in diplomacy, economy, trade, investment, cooperation and connectivity in Nepal has increased, which has amplified the country’s geostrategic credence globally. The geo-location of Nepal, the Tibet factor, competition between India and China, and between the US and China in Nepal pose substantial challenges to the country. Their irrational competition on “who can be more stupid” has only increased the threat to Nepal’s physical and psychological security.
Physically, Nepal shares an open border of 1880 kilometers with India and 1439.18 kilometers of boundary land with China. Nepal’s national security is crucial due to existing geo-location, dynamics of geopolitics and its asymmetric relations with India and China. Yet Nepal’s physical position is quite significant.
Psychologically, Nepal has been mostly stressed by psychological and political warfare, and influenced by geopolitical meddling. Due to the changing dynamics of geopolitics in the region and beyond, powerful countries like the US, China and India have been relentlessly increasing their activities in Nepal and are likely to push their interests in Nepal through various strategies, including the IPS, MCC, B3W, BRI, or the “carrots and sticks” of the “Neighborhood First Policy”. Logically, Nepal is now under a sensitive geopolitical chess-game and is at the epicenter of the geopolitical chess-board as shown in the diagram below:
Diplomatically, Nepal should conserve its geostrategic magnitude and balance the expectations projected under various initiatives as mentioned above by considering geopolitical sensitivities. Nepal can equally leverage from all the powers and maintain balanced relations through inclusive political interactions, partnership and cooperation, and balancing or strategic hedging as the country is in what can be called ‘a system affecting position’.
Nepal has maintained cordial relations with every country in South Asia, and enjoys good ties with many countries in Europe, Asia and America. It can influence the world by adhering to its candid political, societal and civilization culture as a champion of democracy and human rights. Nepal is perhaps one of the few countries in the world with incredible soft and strategic potentials through which it can significantly influence the whole world. It can be a “bridge builder” not only in the South Asian region, but also in the European and American continents. Nepal should engage with different countries through multilateralism so as to benefit from opportunities in different sectors like trade, economy, cooperation, knowledge sharing, technology transfer and security—both physical and digital.
A soft security strategy has become more important for Nepal in a fast-changing world. Since Nepal does not possess significant intelligence, counter-intelligence or strategic intelligence mechanisms and
has not been fortified with robust defense technologies, its presence in regional and global politics should not create ample ground for others to cause trouble to it. In the international political or diplomatic sphere, Nepal cannot apply “Newton’s third law of motion”. How Nepal maintains its relations with Beijing and New Delhi is a matter of critical concern for Washington. Thus, realizing its sensitivities and significance of geostrategic credence, Nepal should make a rational geostrategic move amid an emerging world order.
