In this time of “transformation and turbulence,” China has a vision for a “safer world,” its top diplomat Wang Yi told G20 counterparts last week as he reiterated Beijing’s pitch for “a new path to security” without alliances, “zero-sum” competition and “bloc confrontation.”
That vision – coded language for reshaping a world order China sees as unfairly dominated by the West – has been a cornerstone of Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s push to step up as an alternative global leader to the US. And the drive has the potential to take on new relevance, observers say, as Beijing eyes the opportunities to advance its influence in the wake of Trump’s US foreign policy upset.
Trump’s shake-up was obvious even in the room of foreign ministers from the world’s largest economies where Wang, China’s most seasoned diplomat, spoke in South Africa last week.President Donald Trump’s upending of US foreign policy has alarmed allies and nations in need. His administration has decimated foreign aid, threatened to take control of other countries’ sovereign territory, exited key international bodies and alienated Europe with an embrace of Russia. But the head-spinning set of moves, that together signal a retreat from leadership of a liberal order to “America First,” is playing right into the messaging of the US’ biggest rival. The absence of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meant no high-ranking US diplomat was there to present an American counterpoint to a gathering of countries that make up 80% of the global population and three-quarters of international trade.
On the surface, this shift has the potential to accelerate China’s ascent as a global power, potentially granting the world’s second-largest economy space to win more allies, boost its global leadership and shift global norms and rules – such as those on human rights or security – in its favor. But countries from Europe to Asia are well aware of the wide gap between Beijing’s benign rhetoric and its behavior as it flouts a major international ruling to harass Philippine vessels in the South China Sea or intimidates Taiwan – the self-ruling democracy Bejing claims.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration has signaled it wants to shift attention from other global conflicts to focus on its rivalry with China. And Beijing will face that and potential fresh US tariffs on its goods as it tries to revive a weak economy – limiting how much it can pour into expanding global influence. But even still, there are signs that China may see potential for those headwinds to just be some turbulence in a rise made easier by Trump’s policies.
“Trump 2.0 era will undoubtedly weaken the US’ leadership in international affairs,” an analysis published this month on the website of Shanghai-based think tank Fudan Development Institute said. “As other countries, particularly the European Union and China, actively respond, the power vacuum left by the US withdrawal may be filled by them … With the US no longer able to dominate global issues as it once did, a new global governance structure may emerge,” it said. The US administration said it has terminated more 90% of the US Agency for International Development (USAID)’s foreign assistance awards, a move disclosed in a court filing Wednesday, weeks after Trump officials implemented a sweeping freeze on most foreign assistance, stalling programs supporting education, health and development.
As the changes rolled out in recent weeks, some English-language arms of Chinese state media released scathing critiques of such aid. Foreign aid is “viewed by the US as a tool to maintain its hegemonic position and engage in geopolitical maneuvering,” nationalist tabloid the Global Times said in an article on USAID, an agency Beijing has long seen as a thorn in its side, accusing of sparking democratic “color revolutions” and indoctrinating US proxies across the world. USAID, which was founded during the Cold War, has long played a key role in advancing American soft power and democratic ideals.
There has been some indication China will take targeted steps to ramp up its support in regions it sees as strategically important in the wake of the US freeze – a move that would align with what experts have seen as a soft-power struggle between the two countries in recent decades.Even still, China may look to capitalize on countries’ uncertainty about the US to expand its trade and security ties, as well as access to critical minerals, observers say. And countries may take uncertainty in US relations – from the aid freeze to Trump’s tariff threats – into calculations for dealing with the world’s two largest economies.
“Beijing can send the message to the rest of the world … that the US is fundamentally going to be unreliable,” said Manoj Kewalramani, who heads Indo-Pacific studies at the Takshashila Institution research center in the Indian city of Bengaluru. “Why would you want to pick a fight with Beijing now?” In an interview with news outlet Breitbart published this week, Rubio suggested that as the US looks to push back on China’s global influence there would be “more big deals” like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, but did not provide further specifics. Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier this month said they would further develop the Biden-era trade and transit project.
Meanwhile, there are already signs of concern from some parts about Beijing’s potential gains from a Trump-era pullback of US assistance. In an open letter to Trump posted on social platform X, Nepalese lawmaker Rajendra Bajgain last week warned that a “vacuum created by reduced American involvement will inevitably be filled by other powers that do not share the values of democracy and free enterprise.” Two major US-funded infrastructure projects as well as other initiatives in Nepal have been put on hold following the US aid freeze, Reuters reported.
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