Perhaps as attention shifted to Gaza, Ukraine, and the upcoming US election, the threat posed by ISIS, also known as the Islamic State, appeared to be decreasing. However, the attack on a concert venue in Moscow last week served as a reminder to the world of the persistent threat posed by Islamist terrorism and the goals of the group known as IS Khorasan, or ISIS-K, which extend far beyond its camps in the Afghan foothills.Analysts believe the group has a growing focus on Europe – and point to events such as this year’s Paris Olympics as potential targets.
ISIS claimed responsibility for the Moscow attack. The fact that Tajik nationals were allegedly involved indicates ISIS-K was responsible; the group draws many members from central Asia and has a record of previous plots in Russia. US officials have also said there is evidence ISIS-K carried out the attack.
ISIS-K was created nine years ago as an autonomous ‘province’ of the Islamic State, and despite many enemies has survived and proved itself capable of launching attacks in Pakistan, Iran and central Asia. Before the Crocus City attack, it had planned others in Europe and Russia. The commander of US Central Command, Gen. Erik Kurilla, assessed recently that ISIS-K “retains the capability and the will to attack US and Western interests abroad in as little as six months with little to no warning.”
UN experts and others – including the Russian security services – estimate the strength of ISIS-K at between 4,000 and 6,000 fighters. Sanaullah Ghafari became the group’s leader in 2020 and, despite occasional reports of his demise, terrorism analysts believe he remains an effective leader.
Both the Taliban and the United States have sought – though not in concert – to expunge ISIS-K from its safe havens in eastern Afghanistan. But a recent analysis in Sentinel, the journal of the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, said it “remains a resilient organization, capable of adapting to changing dynamics and evolving to survive difficult circumstances.”
Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior adviser to the New York-based Counter Extremism Project, told CNN that ISIS-K “has the desire and a growing ability to project beyond Afghanistan and carry out regional attacks” in Pakistan, Iran and central Asia, bolstered by a robust media output in Tajik, Uzbek and Russian. Fitton-Brown said that in Afghanistan the Taliban’s “Pashto chauvinism has helped ISIS-K recruit from other Afghan ethnic groups.”
ISIS-K’s most infamous attack until now was the suicide bombing at Kabul airport in 2021 that killed nearly 200 people, including 13 US soldiers guarding the airport.It has continued a campaign of suicide bombings and assassinations against the Taliban, which it regards as insufficiently radical and beholden to outside powers. Just last week, an ISIS-K suicide bomber detonated his explosive belt among Taliban militia in the Afghan city of Kandahar, inflicting dozens of casualties, according to local accounts.
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