Two nuclear-armed powers, both run by nationalist governments at a time of economic tension, are once again squaring off along their shared border. Is this a recipe for disaster?
Earlier this week, China accused Indian troops of illegally trespassing on Chinese territory in the Himalayas, months after the two countries engaged in their bloodiest clash in more than four decades.
That incident, which left dozens of soldiers dead, had been followed by calls for calm and deescalation, but negotiations between Indian and Chinese officials went nowhere, and things are once again heating up along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the de facto border between the two countries.
Speaking Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said: “the Indian side has severely undermined China’s territorial sovereignty, breached bilateral agreements and important consensus, and damaged peace and tranquility in the border areas, which runs counter to the recent efforts made by both sides for deescalation of tensions on the ground.”
For its part, New Delhi has accused Beijing of being the aggressor, and such is the nature of the hotly-disputed 2,100 mile-long (3,379 kilometer) border, where there is little agreement even over the supposedly agreed-upon facts, like the LAC itself, that both sides could potentially be correct.
That the deescalation process pursued since their last clash in June did not amount to much comes as little surprise, given the outstanding disputes and geopolitical pressures on both sides. But even as outright conflict remains a thankfully distant prospect, there is reason for concern that relations between the two largest powers in Asia are getting worse.
Murky waters
The Line of Actual Control, the loosely-defined, de facto border, emerged out of the Sino-Indian border war of 1962, which itself was sparked by longstanding historical territorial disagreements.
For much of the 1800s, the Himalayas was a focus of the military and political rivalry between the three empires of Russia, Britain and China, with all three claiming various parts of the region. Decolonization only brought with it further confusion and antipathy, particularly after Pakistan split from India in 1947 as both countries gained independence.
On any map that attempts to show all three countries’ supposed territories, the area between them is a mess of overlapping claims, with little agreement on any side.
The latest border incident occurred around Pangong Tso, a strategically located lake which spans an area stretching from the Indian territory of Ladakh to Chinese-controlled Tibet. It is south of the Galwan Valley, where the bloody clash between Chinese and Indian troops took place in June.
Antoine Levesques, research fellow for South Asia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), said that the lake itself holds little immediate military value to either side, but this has not stopped the ramping up of patrols and development in the area on both sides.
Until late last month, Levesques said, “diplomats had refrained from publicly and specifically discussing the situation at Pangong Tso lake. But it remains one location where successive rounds of military-led talks have failed to result yet in impactful or visible de-escalation and disengagement witnessed in other hotspots.”
And while there is little immediate military value to the lake, there are strategic benefits to China in establishing control over the area, he added.
“As the site of a bloody tactical battle in 1962 which India lost, before losing that year’s short conflict altogether, Pangong Tso carries considerable symbolic value,” Levesques said, predicting that were any proper deescalation to be carried out, positions around the lake would likely be the last to be traded away or disengaged from.
Geopolitical tensions
For all both countries’ talk of a desire for deescalation, a meaningful mechanism to prevent clashes still seems a long way off, though winter conditions will at some point make any further action in the Himalayas impossible for a period.
Partly, the latest disputes are a result of an increasingly assertive foreign policy on both sides. Under Chinese President Xi Jinping, Beijing has become far more aggressive in its territorial claims not only in the Himalayas but also the South China Sea, while also taking a far harder line with regard to Taiwan and semi-autonomous Hong Kong.
For his part, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has overseen a marked shift in tone toward not only traditional rival Pakistan but also China. Last year, Modi’s government revoked the limited autonomy granted to Indian-controlled Kashmir and split the former state into two union territories, Ladakh and Jammu and Kashmir.
This move alarmed many in Beijing, particularly as it was followed by aggressive comments by several leading Indian politicians, such as Home Affairs Minister Amit Shah telling a rally of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that “any intrusion into the the borders of India will be punished.”
Any Indian expansion or significant fortification of its hold over the region could threaten China’s strategic goals in central Asia, Happymon Jacob, an associate professor at the Center for International Politics, Organization and Disarmament at Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University, told CNN earlier this year.
“China has invested more than $60 billion (on the economic corridor) with Pakistan” that runs through the disputed region, he said, adding that this is a “crucial element” of Xi’s signature Belt and Road trade and development plan.
These moves set the stage for the June conflict, which brought relations between the two powers to new lows. While China was largely able to control public reaction through a downplaying of the issue in its tightly controlled state media, the reaction in India was outrage, with many jingoistic commentators calling for Delhi to take the fight to Beijing.
Speaking in July, Tanvi Madan, director of the India Project at the Brookings Institution, said the clash “hardened views in the government, the strategic community, and the public that were already toughening because of Covid about China.”
It also fueled an ongoing pivot of sorts by Delhi toward Washington, further alarming Beijing, which already regards itself as somewhat boxed in by the United States in the region.
“The US-China relationship is arguably about as tense as a relationship can be without being in a hot war. By contrast, the US-India relationship is on the ascent,” Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia Program at the Wilson Center, wrote recently. “Looking at the Ladakh crisis, Beijing’s moves can be seen as an effort to deliver a tough message to both Washington and New Delhi: If you two are going to band together against us, then be ready to get pushed back.”
Source: CNN
