Following Donald Trump’s spectacular political comeback to win the race to the White House, China is preparing for what may be a turbulent and extremely unpredictable future in its growing great power rivalry with the United States.
His return could bring tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese goods – which could devastate economic growth in the world’s second largest economy and upend global supply chains – more technology controls and fiery rhetoric on Beijing, heightening tension in already rocky relations between the superpowers.
But Trump’s protectionist trade posture and transactional approach to foreign policy may also weaken US alliances and global leadership, presenting opportunities for Beijing to fill the void of America’s retreat and shape an alternative world order.“Trump’s return to power will certainly bring greater opportunities and greater risks for China,” said Shen Dingli, a foreign policy analyst in Shanghai. “Whether it eventually leads to more risks or more opportunities depend on how the two sides interact with each other.”
Officially, China has sought to present a neutral stance on Trump’s win. Its Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday it “respected” America’s choice. Chinese leader Xi Jinping congratulated Trump on Thursday. Known for his fondness for autocrats, Trump has regularly praised Xi and called the Chinese leader “a very good friend,” even as US-China relations nosedived under his watch. Xi told the president-elect that China and America can “find the right way” to “get along in the new era,” according to a readout from the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
But beneath the calm surface, Beijing is likely bracing for impact – and uncertainties. “Trump is a very mercurial person,” said Liu Dongshu, an assistant professor of international affairs at the City University of Hong Kong. “It remains to be seen whether he will implement, and to what extent, the policies he promised during the election campaign, and if he will stick to his first-term agenda.” During Trump’s first term in office, the tough-talking populist who promised to make “America great again” launched a bruising trade war with China, backlisted Chinese telecom giant Huawei on national security grounds and blamed Beijing for the Covid-19 pandemic. By the end of his first term, bilateral relations had plunged to their lowest point in decades.
This time around, Trump has threatened on the campaign trail to slap 60% tariffs on all goods made in China and revoke its “permanent normal trade relations” status, which has given China the most favorable trade terms with the US for more than two decades. This punitive measure, if carried through, could deliver a body blow to an economy already beset by a property crisis, flagging consumer demand, falling prices and mounting local government debts.
Investment bank Macquarie estimates that, at the sky-high 60% level, the tariffs are likely to cut the country’s growth by a full two percentage points, which would be just under half of China’s expected full-year economic expansion rate of 5%. But Trump’s “America First” agenda and transactional worldview may also play in Beijing’s favor, experts say.
“Although Beijing is deeply concerned about the unpredictability of Trump’s China policy, it reminds itself that challenges also bring opportunities,” said Tong Zhao, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Despite fears of a renewed trade war, Beijing believes that Trump’s tough tariff policies would be deeply unpopular in Europe, creating an opening for China to strengthen economic ties with Europe and counter US efforts to intensify technology and supply chain decoupling between China and Western nations,” he said.But Trump’s “America First” agenda and transactional worldview may also play in Beijing’s favor, experts say.
“Although Beijing is deeply concerned about the unpredictability of Trump’s China policy, it reminds itself that challenges also bring opportunities,” said Tong Zhao, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Despite fears of a renewed trade war, Beijing believes that Trump’s tough tariff policies would be deeply unpopular in Europe, creating an opening for China to strengthen economic ties with Europe and counter US efforts to intensify technology and supply chain decoupling between China and Western nations,” he said.
Source: Here
