The war between Israel and Hamas has already spilled over to the wider Middle East, with prospects of a confrontation between regional and world powers becoming ever more likely.Across the region, the fighting has largely been confined to tit-for-tat attacks between Iran-backed militias on one side and the US, Israel and its allies on the other. But the direct intervention of both Iran and the US in recent weeks has heightened fears that the proxy conflict between the two could turn into a direct one.
So far, the US and Iran have avoided directly confronting each other. The US has attacked Iranian-backed groups in Yemen, Syria and Iraq, while Iran-linked groups have targeted American personnel in Iraq and Syria. Tehran has also struck what it said were anti-Iran groups in Iraq, Syria and Pakistan. Pakistan responded with retaliatory strikes.While the Israel-Hamas war has not yet spilled into the Gulf Arab states, some of those nations feel vulnerable as they have been targeted by Iran-linked groups before. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were attacked by the Houthis in 2019 and 2022, respectively.
The US-allied Gulf states are also home to some of the biggest deployments of US troops in the world.The US has around 13,500 US forces in Kuwait, the largest American military presence in the region. Only Germany, Japan, and South Korea host more US forces than Kuwait.The US’ second-largest military presence in the region is in Qatar, which hosts around 10,000 US forces at Al-Udeid Air Base, the largest US military base in the Middle East that is also home to the US Central Command’s Forward Headquarters and the Combined Air Operations Centre. The US this month quietly reached an agreement that extends its military presence for another 10 years at the base.
Qatar maintains relations with Hamas, having hosted its political office in the capital Doha since 2012.More than 2,700 US forces are stationed at the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, while the UAE hosts 3,500 US military personnel at Al Dhafra Air Base, which is home to the Gulf Air Warfare Center.Other hubs for US military presence include Bahrain, which hosts the US Naval Forces Central Command and is home to the Navy’s Fifth Fleet, and Jordan, which hosts around 3,000 US troops. Turkey hosts 1,465 military members at Incirlik airbase.