Recent years have brought heightened concern in Western intelligence circles that China could invade the self-governing island of Taiwan as early as next year. But the United States now says an imminent attack is unlikely.
An annual threat assessment by the US intelligence community said Beijing prefers to achieve so-called unification without the use of force, and recognizes that an amphibious assault would be extremely difficult and carry a high risk of failure, especially if the US intervenes.
“Beijing almost certainly will consider a variety of factors in deciding whether and how to pursue military approaches to unification, including PLA readiness, the actions and politics of Taiwan, and whether or not the US will militarily intervene on Taiwan’s behalf,” the report said, referring to China’s People’s Liberation Army.
In 2021, Admiral Philip Davidson, then in charge of the Indo-Pacific Command, said China wanted to be ready to invade Taiwan in the next six years. The premise that Beijing could take action in 2027 became known as the “Davidson window,” fueling greater urgency in Taiwan’s military reform. The updated analysis comes as President Donald Trump has sought to postpone an important meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing, during which one of the top priorities was expected to be US policy toward Taiwan.
China’s ruling Communist Party has vowed to “reunify” with the self-governing democracy, despite having never controlled Taiwan, as part of its plan for “national rejuvenation.”
While the US does not maintain official diplomatic ties with Taiwan, and has long declined to say whether it will send military support in event of conflict, Chinese officials have previously criticized the US as interfering in its internal affairs on Taiwan, and have condemned proposed arms sales that could total $25 billion.
China has also often emphasized its preference for peaceful unification. Still, the growing frequency of Chinese military incursions around the island and worsening relations between Beijing and Taipei have raised fears that Xi might ultimately resort to force. Asked about the most recent US intelligence assessment on Thursday, Beijing’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian urged US institutions to “stop hyping up the ‘China threat’ theory.”
“How to resolve the Taiwan question is entirely a matter for the Chinese people themselves and brooks no interference from any foreign forces,” said Lin in a regular press briefing.
Source: Here
