On Monday, some fringe communist parties announced the formation of the Nepal Socialist Front, a loose network of “like-minded” political forces.
It consists of the CPN (Center for Maoism), the Janata Samajivadi Party led by Upendra Yadav, the CPN (United Socialists) and the CPN Maoists led by Netra Bikram Chand. Together they announced plans to build and expand front lines at the state and local levels as well. Political observers see the latest communist front as a tactic to boost the number of votes in the next election, as their individual presence across the country and their organizational strength are in tatters.
Leading the front is the Maoist Center of Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, which won just 32 seats in the federal parliament in the 2022 general elections. Next up are the Madhav Kumar Nepal-led Unified Socialist, which failed to even secure a national party status winning only 10 seats under first-past-the-post voting category and zero under the proportional representation system; Yadav’s JSP, which has 12 seats in the federal parliament; and Chand’s Maoist party, which did not contest the elections.
The key purpose of the front is to make collective bargaining for power with either the Nepali Congress or the CPN-UML, two largest parties in parliament.
According to some leaders, the front is even planning to fight the next elections under a common symbol by forging an alliance with the NC or the UML. If the alliance plan did not work, the front is even willing to contest the polls as a single political force.
It is also noteworthy that the ‘Socialist Front’ has been announced at a time when mistrust is rising between the ruling Maoist party and its coalition partners, particularly the NC. Ruling party insiders say the announcement of the communist alliance has further fueled the mistrust between the two ruling parties.
As Finance Minister Prakash Sharan Mahat of the NC designed this year’s budget largely in his party’s favor, parties including the JSP and Unified Socialist are said to be unhappy. Unified Socialist’s senior leader Nepal has already warned that his party will not help the government endorse the budget if some of his party’s demands are not addressed. JSP’s Yadav too has been talking about amending the budget, saying that there was no serious discussion among the coalition partners regarding the budget.
It is not just the Unified Socialist and the JSP that have objected to the budget.
The CK Raut-led Janamat Party, which is not part of the ‘Socialist Front’, has also said that if the budget is not amended, the party will withdraw its support to the government.
These developments clearly show the growing dissatisfaction inside the ruling coalition. By forming the front of communist parties, Prime Minister Dahal meanwhile is trying to show that he has grown powerful, against the narrative that the current coalition is weak. By leading the front, he wants to show that even with just 32 seats in parliament, he has a strong support of fringe communist parties to go head to head with both the NC and the UML.
The NC views the formation of the ‘Socialist Front’ as Dahal’s ploy to put pressure on the party into compromising with a collective of fringe forces displaying a common front.
The formation of the front also coincides with the growing communication between the NC and the UML. The second-rung leaders of both parties are exploring ways to work together, including the formation of a new government. However, most NC leaders insist that there is no possibility of the current coalition breaking down.
One NC leader told Apex on condition of anonymity that if the current coalition breaks down, the party risks losing power both at the center and provinces, just like it did right after the 2022 general elections when the Maoist Center and the UML decided to form a government.
He added that there is a good chemistry between NC President Deuba and Prime Minister Dahal of the Maoist Center, a scenario which he cannot imagine with KP Oli of the UML.
But there are also those in the NC who do not rule out the possibility of the NC-UML coalition—that is if it ensures government stability for at least five years.
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