Last weekend’s clashes between Chinese and Philippine vessels in the South China Sea send troubling signals that their standoff is worsening to a point where lives could be lost, potentially dragging the world’s two most-powerful militaries into open conflict, analysts warn.“The escalatory cycle is worrying,” said Ray Powell, director of SeaLight, a project at the Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation at Stanford University that monitors maritime activities in the South China Sea.
Analysts described Sunday’s clash, in which Chinese Coast Guard water cannons disabled a Philippine boat, as the most serious of four publicized showdowns this year between the two countries in the waters near Second Thomas Shoal, a feature China claims as its territory but where Philippine marines man an outpost on a grounded ship.
The Philippine boats were attempting to bring supplies to the badly deteriorating ship, the Sierra Madre, when the Chinese Coast Guard tried to stop them, both countries acknowledge.
A Chinese Coast Guard ship “deployed a water cannon against the Philippine supply vessels causing severe damage to (one’s) engines, disabling the vessel and seriously endangering the lives of its crew,” the National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea said in a statement.While no injuries were reported Sunday, the clash, which also included a collision between Chinese and Philippine vessels, shows that serious injuries or deaths are “certainly possible,” Powell said.
And because the Philippines, like nearby Japan and South Korea, has a mutual defense treaty with the United States, deaths of Filipinos could trigger US forces to respond.US officials have repeatedly cited the treaty in public remarks on the South China Sea and the US State Department this week reiterated Washington’s stance following Sunday’s clash. The United States “stands with our Philippine allies in the face of these dangerous and unlawful actions,” the statement said.
China’s Foreign Ministry, however, told Washington it has no standing in the dispute, saying “no third party has the right to intervene.”Beijing claims “indisputable sovereignty” over almost all of the South China Sea, including many features hundreds of miles from mainland China. The Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei and Taiwan also hold competing claims.In 2016, an international tribunal in The Hague ruled in favor of the Philippines and concluded that China has no legal basis to claim historic rights to the bulk of the South China Sea. But Beijing has ignored the ruling.Second Thomas Shoal, known as Ayungin Shoal to the Philippines and Ren’ai Reef to China, sits in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.
Manila grounded the Sierra Madre, a World War II-era former US Navy transport ship, on Second Thomas Shoal in 1999 and has manned it with Filipino marines to enforce its claims to the area. But the rusting vessel is falling apart and is badly in need of regular repairs.But Beijing has been steadfast in its claim that Manila is illegally occupying the shoal.
On Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning accused the Philippines of seriously violating China’s sovereignty and endangering the safety of Chinese vessels and personnel.But analysts counter that Beijing comes across as the aggressor.“China acts, looks like and is being exposed as a bully,” said Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center.And Beijing is looking to press its claim, the analysts say.
Source: Here